Economic survey likely to predict 11 pc economic growth for 2021-22

In its annual economic survey to be announced later today, the Finance minister is likely to predict economic growth of 11 per cent in the fiscal year beginning April 1, a source said.

The Indian economy, which the International Monetary Fund, singled out as a global bright spot only a few years ago is set to contract 7.7 per cent in the current fiscal year to March 31.

But the government predicts the rollout of vaccines against COVID-19 which has killed 153,847 Indians will re-energise Asia's third-largest economy with 11 per cent growth next year. That would mark the strongest growth since India liberalised its economy in 1991.

The survey is set to forecast nominal GDP, which includes inflation, will rise 15.4 per cent, the highest since India's independence in 1947, said the source, who asked not to be identified. High nominal GDP points towards higher tax collections.

The survey's projections will form the basis for key figures in the budget due to be announced on Monday by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.